I decided to take a realistic view midway through the match between Lesotho and Nigeria, which has been goalless so far.
Nigeria aren’t out of the race yet. But let me be clear: it’s hanging by threads. With just two more games left in Group C (today vs Lesotho and then at home vs Benin), the Super Eagles are chasing something that feels very close yet still far away.
Right now, they have 11 points. South Africa and Benin are ahead, tied on 14 points, though South Africa was stripped of three points for fielding an ineligible player, which shuffled things. That decision gave Nigeria a glimmer of hope—Suddenly, the dream got a pulse. (Reuters)
What Needs to Go Right — The Checklist
This is where it gets tricky. For Nigeria to really make it, several things have to click:
- Win both matches — No excuses. First, beat Lesotho away. Then deal with Benin at home. Two wins would take them to a maximum of 17 points.
- South Africa slips up — They need to drop points in their final games vs Zimbabwe and Rwanda. Any stutter from them helps Nigeria immensely.
- Benin doesn’t run away with it — Nigeria not only must beat Benin, but needs Benin to fail to win both their remaining matches (or at least draw one). Every point counts.
- Goal difference could matter — In a group this tight, how many they score and concede in those final games may end up being the tie-breaker. Big wins are better than squeakers.
- The new CAF ruling helps slightly — Because Eritrea withdrew from the qualifiers, CAF is considering a change: discarding results versus bottom-placed teams when comparing runners-up across groups. That helps Nigeria’s case a bit, given how some of their results (good or bad) came vs weaker teams.
The Barriers — What Makes It Hard
Despite all this, there are still real obstacles. Here are some of the things working against Nigeria:
- Dropped points earlier. Several draws where they could’ve won have hurt. There’s very little margin for error down the stretch.
- Injuries & squad depth. Key players have been missing or not fully fit at times. That matters under pressure.
- Other group results are out of Nigeria’s control. Even if Nigeria win both matches, if South Africa and Benin also win, or if runners-up in other groups pile up big point totals, Nigeria’s window (especially for second place/playoff route) could close.
The Feelings Behind It
If you’re a Nigerian fan right now, you’re probably torn between hope and dread. Hope, because suddenly there’s life again—thanks to the South Africa punishment and the rule tweaks from CAF. Dread, because they’ve put themselves in this pressure cooker: everything must go well, and one slip can shatter the dream.
There’s also that emotional fatigue: last tournaments, missed chances, goals not finished off, moments where composure slipped. It feels like history is testing the team’s nerve. But it also reveals character. Players like Osimhen, Lookman, and Chukwueze — when they show up, you believe.
Where Things Probably Will End Up
If I had to bet—with all humility and awareness that football loves surprises—here’s what seems most likely:
- Nigeria wins both matches and hits 17 points. That might be enough to finish second, depending on how South Africa and Benin do.
- But finishing first? Only if both South Africa and Benin stumble hard. That’s a slim chance.
- If Nigeria finish second, they’re going into the playoff route. And even that isn’t guaranteed, because only the top four runners-up across all groups will be in that batch. They’ll need help from results elsewhere.
